 19
to 21…No, that’s not how many pitchers the Phillies
are going to audition for Brett Myers’ spot in the rotation.
Volume 7, #15, June 1, 2009
A Minor Phenomenon
Two left-handed pitchers’ minor league records, at the point
wherein they made their respective major league debuts…
W-L G IP H BB K ERA WHIP
A 14-4 35 195 114 72 273 1.42 .954
B 18-9 55 265 196 116 297 2.55 1.177
From reviewing just these numbers, it should be clear that, while
both were excellent minor league pitchers, “A” was the
better of the two. Not only did he have better control than the
average young lefty, but he struck out almost four times as many
batters as he walked, had a WHIP under one and allowed just 5.26
hits per nine innings. Furthermore, what these stats don’t
show is that he gave up just two home runs in the minors (both to
right-handed hitters) before his major league call-up, and that
his only appearance in Triple A produced 36 strikeouts and one walk
in 23 innings. It is also worth noting that “A” made
his major league debut in May 2006 at the age of 22 years and four
months, while “B” is making his debut tomorrow night
at the age of 23 years, eight months – another indication
that “A” is/was a relatively better prospect.
Both pitchers’ records were compiled during three minor league
seasons, and parts of a fourth, and in the same organization, which
might lead to some observant spectators to speculation as to why
“A” averaged just nine games a year in the minors, especially
since he was clearly a minor phenomenon. That’s because he’s
Cole Hamels, the current NLCS and World Series MVP, and he spent
most of his minor league career battling various injuries, certainly
a lot more than he was battling the opposition. Hamels, if healthy,
would have been in the majors well before May 12, 2006, when he
overmatched Ken Griffey and the Reds as badly as he’d been
overmatching minor league hitters.
At this point, Hamels’ developmental years are old news,
except maybe in comparison to “B” who is, as noted,
making his debut tomorrow night, pitching for the Phillies against
the Padres. He’s Antonio Bastardo, and, if Hamels is the best
pitching prospect to come out of the Phillies’ minor league
system since Robin Roberts, then Bastardo may well be the best Phillies
pitching prospect since, well, Cole Hamels. But, just how good is
he? Projecting the future of 23 year-old left-handed pitchers is
as risky (and maybe as foolish) a business as playing the lottery…
to paraphrase that noted philosopher, Joaquin Andujar, you just
never know what numbers will turn up.
This uncertainty is accentuated in Bastardo’s case by the
fact that he was barely on the radar last year – Baseball
America only rated him the Phillies’ 11th best prospect, which
just goes to prove that; A) Baseball America isn’t always
accurate in its ratings, and B) no one else is, either. This despite
the fact that Bastardo went undefeated in 2007, running off a 10-0
record with a 2.14 ERA in A ball, striking out 110 in 97 innings
and only allowing 68 hits. In 2009, Bastardo has managed to leap
over Carlos Carrasco, Drew Carpenter, et al, to become the Phillies’
top prospect, going 3-2 with a 1.90 ERA split between Double A and
Triple A…
W-L G IP H BB K ERA WHIP
2009 3-2 11 47 32 10 51 1.90 .887
His two Triple A starts haven’t been too bad, even though
they don’t match Hamels’ three 2006 beat downs of International
League competition; 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA, 12 Ks, 3Ws and 11 hits
allowed in 13 innings.
Nonetheless, it is not fair to expect Bastardo to be the next Cole
Hamels. First of all, as noted, he’s more than a year older
than Hamels was when he made the majors – and Hamels would
have been there sooner if not for his physical issues (some of which
weren’t baseball-related.) Second, and maybe more importantly,
Bastardo is essentially a two-pitch pitcher, a fastball and a change-up.
That’s what Hamels came out of the minors with, but his change-up
is in the Trevor Hoffman class, and he was in the process of picking
up a killer curve ball as well, since very few pitchers can succeed
on the major league level for long without a good breaking pitch
of some kind. Think Al Orth, The Curveless Wonder of the turn of
the last century who had a good change and a good spitter, Walter
Johnson (he didn’t need a good curve), Satchel Paige, who,
according to Bill Veeck, didn’t have a good curve until he
was pitching for Miami in the minors in the mid-50s, and maybe a
few others.
With Brett Myers out for the rest of the season, and the 2009 trading
deadline still two months away, the Phillies have been linked with
every conceivable starter who might be available, and even a few
who aren’t (why would the Jays trade Roy Halladay or the Reds
Aaron Harang?). And maybe they will indeed play Let’s Make
a Deal. After all, they’ve swung mid-season deals for pitching
help in each of the last three years – Jamie Moyer in 2006
(that turned out pretty well), Kyle Lohse in 2007 (everyone makes
mistakes) and Joe Blanton, without whom they probably wouldn’t
have won the World Series, in 2008. Note though that none of these
deals was a blockbuster of the C.C. Sabathia caliber (though it
continues to be rumored that they were second in the C.C. Sweepstakes
last year), in all three cases, they were looking for incremental
improvement. That may or may not be the case in 2009, when; A) they
have a World Series trophy to defend, and B) they have one less
year to win with the 28 to 30 year old nucleus of the current team.
Given both those situations, it’s still possible that Bastardo
may get several starts for the Phillies. And, it’s possible
he may pitch pretty well. But it seems unlikely that he’s
due for an extended stay in the Philadelphia rotation. He’s
only 5-11, 170 pounds, his stuff is more like that of a reliever,
he’s only made two starts above Double A, and he’s not
Cole Hamels. But, then again, very few are, and it may be that the
Phillies will shoot that high in the trade market.
Next up… are the 2009 Nationals really as bad as the 1962
Mets? And, why are really bad teams really bad?
-- John Shiffert
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